[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN
SECTION OF IRVING...THE WESTERN PART OF MADEIRA...METEOR...AND
THE WESTERN PART OF CANARIAS UNTIL 31/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD
CONSISTS OF...NORTH OR NORTHEAST GALE IN AGADIR...AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF TARFAYA WITH THE THREAT OF A SEVERE GALE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W...TO 04N16W AND NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 31W/32W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...CURVING TO 01S44W AND 02S48W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT HAS HELPED TO PRODUCE
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY THAT NOW
ARE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A COMPARATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KXIH...KGLS...KHHV...
AND KVQT.

IFR CONDITIONS...KVAF...KEMK...AND KEIR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIFR IN PORT ISABEL. IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. MVFR IN
HARLINGEN...WESLACO...EDINBURG...AND MCALLEN. IFR IN THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...AND FROM VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO
PALACIOS...TO BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR FROM THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COUNTIES
NORTHWARD TO HUNTSVILLE. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA.
IFR IN BOOTHVILLE. MVFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS.
MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...EARLIER RAIN IN
BROOKSVILLE HAS ENDED. VFR/NO CEILINGS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO PERRY...AND TO BROOKSVILLE AND THE TAMPA/ST.
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
PUNTA GORDA.
VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W EASTWARD...WITH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 19N45W TO 14N65W TROUGH.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 13N NORTHWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SPANS THE AREA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 30/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 30/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/LA
ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 7000 FEET. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. A TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO AFTER THE TROUGH HAS CLEARED
THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE
WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...EASTWARD FOR ABOUT 360
NM...AND THEN IT WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD REACHING SOUTHEASTERN
HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE
START OF DAY ONE. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
TROUGH FOR ALL OF DAY ONE...EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. THE
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH EAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...AND
THEN CYCLONIC WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF DAY TWO...WITH EASTERLY WIND FLOW ENDING DAY TWO ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS
SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 30N80W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N59W TO 20N65W. ONE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 27N72W.
A SECOND COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO 31N71W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM
22NNORTHWARD BETWEEN 44W AND 64W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 30/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.92 IN BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 25N24W 19N45W
14N54W...TO 14N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
ABOUT 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...AND ABOUT
400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE PART OF THE
TROUGH THAT IS FROM 37W EASTWARD SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N30W AND 30N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 40W WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W WITH THE REST OF THE
TROUGH. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CURVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS THROUGH 26N15W TO
24N40W...TO 09N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 25N24W 25N34W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 28N47W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES FROM 28N47W TO
26N65W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net