[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
IRVING AND MADEIRA ZONES IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
AREA WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 9...STRONG
GALE...41-47 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE
METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA
NEAR 08N13W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N16W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 02N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 01S30W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 7W AND
24W AND FROM 06S TO 05N W OF 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTED A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND TSTMS...AND HAIL IN SOME AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. TWO LOW PRES CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MESOSCALE COMPLEX WERE OBSERVED...A 1016 MB LOW S OF
JACKSONVILLE NEAR 29N81W WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW TO
25N81W TO 22N86W AND A 1016 MB LOW OVER TAMPA ADJACENT WATERS
NEAR 27N83W. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEX MOVED FAIRLY FAST OVER
FLORIDA...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM
OFF THE WESTERN PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
ANOTHER FEATURE SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO 27N95W. DENSE FOG
IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COINCIDING WITH MODERATE
TO HIGH FOG PROBABILITIES IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AS
INDICATED BY THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT. RIDGING
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER EASTERN GULF WHILE LOW PRES STARTS TO
BUILD W OF 92W ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT TO ENTER THE NW
BASIN FRI. OTHERWISE...MODERATE E-SE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
BASIN...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG WED THROUGH THU AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC EXTENDING TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN
AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ELSEWHERE. SHALLOW MOISTURE AND
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY RIDGING IN THE SW N ATLC AND
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND COASTAL
WATERS. SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MONA PASSAGE AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE AS STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PERSIST...AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT AS A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS MOVES
W FROM THE MONA PASSAGE. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WED...HOWEVER
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THU
MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE REMNANTS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS OVER SW N ATLC WATERS W OF 72W...INCLUDING THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER WEST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N62W
TO 28N67W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A 1024
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N46W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY LATE
THU THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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