[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291726
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ZONES
IRVING AND MADEIRA IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA
WITH WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 9...STRONG GALE...41-
47 KT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE HIGH SEAS AT
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N21W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S42W.
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE BASIN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W TO 26N89W THEN
CONTINUES TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W. TO THE N OF THIS
BOUNDARY...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 29N89W
TO 29N83W. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE ENHANCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE
AREA N OF 24N AND E OF 88W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE
TO FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF WHILE
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. EXPECT DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE E ENHANCING
CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL
DISSIPATE...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS THE E GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MAINLY S OF
16N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WERE NOTED
OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER
THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO
32N74W. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N80W
TO 29N77W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM 29N77W TO 32N67W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND S OF THE SECOND COLD
FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-74W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH A 1026
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N46W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTS ACROSS
THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS TO
MERGE AND ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS
THE NEW BOUNDARY MOVES SE. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NE ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net