[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN IRVING...
MADEIRA...METEOR...AND CANARIAS UNTIL 30/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD
CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE...LOCALLY SEVERE
GALE...IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF IRVING...EASTERN SECTIONS
OF METEOR...IN MADEIRA...AND IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO
05N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N15W TO 02N23W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 25W...TO 02S30W...AND 03S36W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 97N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 03N TO 02S BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND
90W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 95W EASTWARD.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
31N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N72W TO FLORIDA NEAR
28N81W...TO 26N89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE STATIONARY FRONT
IS DISSIPATING FROM 26N89W TO 23N94W...AND CURVING TO 18N94W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N
BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 95W EASTWARD. A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N80W
29N86W. A COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...ACROSS
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 30N88W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N88W...ALONG 30N TO THE BORDER
OF EAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KGLS...KVAF...KEIR...KSPR...KATP...
AND KIPN.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHHV...KEMK...KEHC...KVQT...
KMDJ...KGHB...AND KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN HARLINGEN AND WESLACO AND MCALLEN. A MIXTURE OF
LIFR TO IFR TO MVFR FROM ROCKPORT TO FALFURRIAS...AND FROM
VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO PALACIOS. LIFR IN BAY CITY. MVFR IN
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR AND MVFR IN THE IMMEDIATE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN PATTERSON. IFR IN
GALLIANO. IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS.
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND IN FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD
...VFR/NO CEILINGS. THE REST OF FLORIDA...IFR IN PERRY. LIFR IN
BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT...AND AT MACDILL.
MVFR IN SARASOTA. LIFR IN PUNTA GORDA. MVFR IN THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO PANAMA
ALONG 80W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
72W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 32N26W-BEYOND-
11N64W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A RIDGE. A TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND JAMAICA AT THE END OF DAY ONE...
GIVING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE
TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF COASTAL VENEZUELA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD MORE AND MORE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB FOR
DAY ONE SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START
ABOUT 360 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC AS THE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
DAY ONE WILL END WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT ALSO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DIRECTION
DURING THE DAY...FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST...ETC.
EXPECT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 24N28W 21N41W
14N57W...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TO
08N68W IN VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ABOUT 200 NM TO 300 NM TO THE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...AND ABOUT 400 NM TO 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...EXCEPT
FOR THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 31N15W BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO AND THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO 27N26W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 29N52W...TO 25N69W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA...TO 20N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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