[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN IRVING UNTIL
30/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL
FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY GALE
IN IRVING REACHING MADEIRA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO
05N14W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 02S33W...01S40W AND 02S44W ALONG THE
COAST OF BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS IN THE EAST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
30N75W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM
30N75W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...AND 26N87W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE STATIONARY FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING NEAR 26N87W AND
IT CONTINUES FROM THERE...TO 24N92W AND 19N94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N67W 30N72W 28N79W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W 23N79W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KGBK...AND KATP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KVAF...KGHB...AND KGRY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN HARLINGEN...AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL
PLAINS IN GENERAL. IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS
CHRISTI. MVFR FROM VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO PALACIOS...AND BAY
CITY. IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN NEW
IBERIA. IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN PASCAGOULA WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. ALABAMA...MVFR IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN
AREA... AND IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...IFR IN PENSACOLA. MVFR IN
VALPARAISO. IFR IN MARIANNA. LIFR IN APALACHICOLA. LIFR IN
BROOKSVILLE. IFR IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE TAMPA-ST.
PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN SARASOTA AND IN PUNTA
GORDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL CUBA TO PANAMA
ALONG 80W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
72W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 32N26W-BEYOND-
11N64W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...OVERALL...IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE
NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS APPROACHING
HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTHEAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A RIDGE. A TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO CUBA AND JAMAICA AT THE END OF DAY ONE...
GIVING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE.
THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE
TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...INTO THE WESTERN
HALF OF COASTAL VENEZUELA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD MORE AND MORE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB FOR
DAY ONE SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START
ABOUT 360 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA.
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME
ANTICYCLONIC AS THE RIDGE MOVES DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA.
DAY ONE WILL END WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...AND THE RIDGE
SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT ALSO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DIRECTION
DURING THE DAY...FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST...ETC.
EXPECT VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS DURING DAY TWO.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 23N32W 17N53W...
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...BEYOND 11N64W
ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ABOUT 200 NM TO
300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...AND ABOUT 400 NM TO 500 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...EXCEPT
FOR THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N14W...TO
29N25W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N49W...TO 26N66W...TO AN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS 1019 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net