[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ZONE IRVING
IN THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
REACHING BEAUFORT FORCE 9...STRONG GALE...41-47 KT OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO
FRANCE HIGH SEAS AT WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
07N12W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 02N16W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 02N16W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA OF FLORIDA THROUGH 27N87W TO 23.5N93W WHERE IT WAS IN THE
PROCESS OF DISSIPATING TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
18.5N93W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SE TO NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE FIRST FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 23N89W TO THE EXTREME EASTERN BAY
OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS COVERED
MOST OF THE GULF WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. GRIDDED LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATED THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS NEAR 27N94W.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS N OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND VARIABLE SW WINDS TO THE S OF THE FRONT.
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE STATIONARY FRONT
WITH THE MERGED FRONTS STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUE
WITH INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF E OF 90W BY LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL NORTH
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SHALLOW
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED THE STRONGEST TRADE WINDS...20 TO
25 KT...WERE CONFINED TO THE AREA S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND
78W... WITH 30 KT WINDS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA PER A 1506 UTC ASCAT PASS. OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WERE NOTED
OVER THE INTERIOR OF HISPANIOLA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER
THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N75W TO THE E
COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF
75W TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF PALM BEACH AND MARTIN COUNTIES.
GRIDDED LIGHTNING DATA CONFIRMED THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WAS
LOCATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N25W...AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
29N52W DOMINATED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NE
ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB
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