[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ZONES
IRVING...MADEIRA AND METEOR. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR
07N12W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 03N20W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S42W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS W OF 27W BETWEEN 02S-06N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW GULF AND NORTHERN
MEXICO FROM 29N90W TO 24N98W TO 31N108W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 27N90W TO 29N83W THEN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE
FRONT. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EXTENDS FROM 25N88W TO 19N93W. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONTS
WHILE LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLIES PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO STALL
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND E GULF. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT MOVING E AND
CATCHING UP WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT DOMINATES THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS S ACROSS THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE
TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE ISLAND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N81W TO
32N77W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 29N BETWEEN 71W-
79W. TO THE E AND DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR
29N51W...A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N28W...AND A 1025 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 25N11W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WHILE A
MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND E ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND W ATLANTIC. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL EXIT THE SE US COAST MERGING WITH THE OLD BOUNDARY
ENHANCING CONVECTION AND WINDS/SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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