[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281103
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 14 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 11N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN IRVING UNTIL
29/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL
FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...CYCLONIC NEAR GALE TO
SEVERE GALE IN IRVING...MADEIRA...AND METEOR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO
04N15W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...AND TO 03S41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 33N79W...OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 22N97W 24N90W 28N81W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF 28N80W
30N70W BEYOND 32N67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
IS 1.39 IN BERMUDA.

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S.A...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST
NEAR 25N98W...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO TO
31N108W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N83W...TO 28N88W...BEYOND
26N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KEHC...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KIPN...KVKY...
KMIS...AND KDLP.

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGRY...KIKT...KVOA...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KGUL...KGBK...KGHB...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. MVFR IN PORT ISABEL. LOUISIANA...
LIFR IN PATTERSON...GALLIANO...PORT FOURCHON...AND BOOTHVILLE.
LIFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...IFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. FLORIDA...
IFR IN THE PENSACOLA METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN MILTON AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD. THE SKY CONDITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED FROM CRESTVIEW TO MARY ESTHER/VALPARAISO/DESTIN. LIFR
IN PANAMA CITY...MARIANNA...AND APALACHICOLA. IFR IN PERRY. THE
RAIN THAT WAS FALLING IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN
AREA EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED. IFR IN SARASOTA. LIFR IN THE FORT
MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA BEYOND
32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
72W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 23N41W-BEYOND-
11N68W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN CUBA-TO-
32N70W RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A RIDGE. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF WIND FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WEST...AND SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB FOR DAY ONE SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START NEAR 22N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. IT EVENTUALLY WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING
THE END OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL REACH CUBA DURING DAY ONE.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AFTER THE FIRST SIX HOURS OR SO OF DAY
TWO. EXPECT SOME EAST WIND FLOW AFTER THE RIDGE DISAPPEARS. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FOR 12
HOURS OR SO...JUST BEFORE THE END OF DAY TWO. DAY TWO EVENTUALLY
WILL END WITH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
31N10W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N35W...THROUGH A MEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N10W...TO 18N54W...ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...BEYOND THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...EXCEPT
FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 31N31W...TO 29N43W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N53W...TO 30N66W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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