[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 11N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS
OF...THE THREAT OF CYCLONIC NEAR GALE OR GALE IN IRVING AND
MADEIRA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO
04N15W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...AND TO 03S41W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 07N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...AND
THE U.S.A. COASTAL SECTIONS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 25N97W...AND
CURVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO TO 30N108W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD
FRONT...FROM 25N TO 29N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W...TO
27N92W...BEYOND 26N97W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR...KVAF...KEMK...KEHC...KATP...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND
KDLP.

IFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KGHB...AND KGRY.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL AND KGBK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN BROWNSVILLE. LIFR IN HARLINGEN. LOUISIANA...
MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. IFR IN LAFAYETTE.
LIFR IN NEW IBERIA...PATTERSON...AND PORT FOURCHON. IFR IN
GALLIANO AND BOOTHVILLE. LIFR AROUND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN GULFPORT. IFR IN
PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...LIFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...MOSTLY LIFR
AND SOME IFR FROM PERRY WESTWARD. IFR IN SARASOTA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA BEYOND
32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
72W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 72W EASTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
RELATED TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 24N40W-BEYOND-
11N68W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
HISPANIOLA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE NORTHWESTERN CUBA-TO-
32N71W RIDGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...BEING ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A RIDGE. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF WIND FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WEST...AND SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB FOR DAY ONE SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START NEAR 22N77W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. THE
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. IT EVENTUALLY WILL
BECOME ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LINE...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...BY THE END OF DAY ONE. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA FOR MUCH OF DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING
THE END OF DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
BRINGING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS AN ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL REACH CUBA DURING DAY ONE.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE
RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AFTER THE FIRST SIX HOURS OR SO OF DAY
TWO. EXPECT SOME EAST WIND FLOW AFTER THE RIDGE DISAPPEARS. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FOR 12
HOURS OR SO...JUST BEFORE THE END OF DAY TWO. DAY TWO EVENTUALLY
WILL END WITH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N78W...OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...THROUGH
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO 30N83W...TO 28N86W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W
AND 79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 28N70W...TO THE COAST OF
CUBA NEAR 23N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 28/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
IS 1.39 IN BERMUDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W...INCLUDING
POSSIBLY ACROSS FLORIDA.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
31N10W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N35W...THROUGH A MEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N40W...TO 18N54W...ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...BEYOND THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
11N68W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
10N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...EXCEPT
FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 33N13W...TO A
1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N19W...TO A 1027 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N34W...TO A SECOND 1027 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N51W...TO 28N69W...ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 24N87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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