[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB
CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR 30N53W AND A 1006
MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST NW OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO START ON 0000 UTC THIS EVENING
...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN 12 HOURS. NE TO E
WINDS 30 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT ARE EXPECTED FROM 11N
TO 12.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/ZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13
W TO THE TROPICAL E ATLC WATERS NEAR 03N16W TO 02N25W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 04N26W TO 00N27W. W OF THE TROUGH...THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 01N28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 00N-02N BETWEEN 08W-
11W...AND FROM 00N-04N BETWEEN 26W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. A SMALL
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 28N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 28N E OF 88W.
ELSEWHERE A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR
30N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER FLORIDA...WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER N FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO MERGE WITH
THE NE GULF FRONT WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE TO GALE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. LIGHTEST
WINDS ARE JUST S OF CENTRAL CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N E OF 66W...
OVER COSTA RICA...AND INLAND OVER E HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OVER THE ISLAND. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE N FLORIDA COAST N OF
29N W OF 77W DUE TO THE LOW OVER N FLORIDA. A 1030 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N53W. ANOTHER 1028 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N23W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 10W-60W. OF NOTE IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N40W WITH
UPPER LEVEL BROKEN CLOUDINESS E OF THE CENTER TO 30W. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT PRESENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE
ATLANTIC OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH MORE
CONVECTION EXTENDING TO 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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