[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
TARFAYA UNTIL 01/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST TIME PERIOD CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE
OF NORTHERLY GALE IN AGADIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N11W TO 03N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N17W TO
02N25W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 02S35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 02N TO 04N
BETWEEN 07W AND 09W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM OF THE COAST OF
BRAZIL BETWEEN 49W AND 58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 13N17W TO 06N26W TO
05N42W 10N45W 14N56W AND 12N62W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CUTS THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. MOSTLY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SOME UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS ONLY
THE WESTERNMOST PARTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW
IS EVIDENT...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OF TODAY THURSDAY AND THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TOMORROW FRIDAY.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...KGBK...KEHC...AND KGHB.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...
KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN IS BEING OBSERVED IN BROWNSVILLE. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THE REST OF THE LOWER VALLEY. IFR IN ROBSTOWN AND
ROCKPORT. MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. LIFR IN PALACIOS. IFR IN PORT LAVACA. MVFR IN
VICTORIA. IFR IN BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN
GALVESTON. IFR IN SUGARLAND. MOSTLY MVFR IN THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER CITIES...INCLUDING TO
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE. ELLINGTON FIELD
IN HOUSTON IS REPORTING IFR CONDITIONS. IFR IN JASPER.
LOUISIANA...IFR AND MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA.
IFR IN NEW IBERIA. MVFR IN LAFAYETTE...GALLIANO...PORT
FOURCHON...AND BOOTHVILLE. IFR IN SLIDELL. MVFR FROM BATON ROUGE
TO THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE REGIONAL AIRPORT. MVFR ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALABAMA...MVFR AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT. FLORIDA...MVFR IN
THE EASTERN PARTS OF FORT MYERS. LIFR IN NAPLES. VFR/NO CEILINGS
ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST PARTS OF
HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM JAMAICA
EASTWARD. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS CUBA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE ELSE
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...LIGHT RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT. SCATTERED CLOUDS
AT 1600 FEET AND AT 7000 FEET. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING DAY ONE. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS PUERTO RICO. THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
ONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT MORE NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ON DAY ONE TO THE WEST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL END UP MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS AND TO THE EAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO STARTS AS
NORTHWESTERLY...AND THEN IT EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHERLY. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE AREA OF
BELIZE/GUATEMALA/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA
NEAR 17N86W BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N AT THE START OF DAY ONE. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EITHER
ONE BROAD INVERTED TROUGH...OR A SERIES OF SHORT-TERM INVERTED
TROUGHS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 13N NORTHWARD.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05
IN GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 32N72W TO 25N70W...BEYOND THE MONA PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N53W TO 27N61W...AND STATIONARY FRONT
FROM 27N61W TO 27N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
67W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N
NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD FROM 30W EASTWARD TO AFRICA. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHERN MOROCCO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N17W 22N28W 16N41W
17N58W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 27N39W 26N53W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 54W...AWAY FROM THE 32N48W 27N61W
COLD FRONT...AND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF
MOROCCO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net