[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS SOON IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS...AND SEA HEIGHTS
BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET...DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 07N11W TO 03N20W 02N27W 02N29W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 02S38W AND 02S42W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 02N TO 03N
BETWEEN 23W AND 27W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 91W FROM 23N SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST...BETWEEN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND THE STATIONARY FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 27N IN THE WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO 30N BETWEEN
77W AND 80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N70W TO 21N76W AT
THE COAST OF CUBA. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND
90W...INCLUDING ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

IFR CONDITIONS...KIKT AND KVOA.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS AND MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN
BOOTHVILLE. ALABAMA...MVFR IN GULF SHORES. FLORIDA...MVFR IN
PENSACOLA AND MILTON...AND IN MARY ESTHER AND DESTIN. LIGHT RAIN
IN CRESTVIEW. LIFR IN VALPARAISO. IFR AT THE NORTHWEST BEACHES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR PANAMA CITY. MVFR IN PANAMA CITY...
IN MARIANNA...AND IN TALLAHASSEE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 82W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IN MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
AND/OR ARE MOVING ACROSS CUBA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.12 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE U.S.A. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. A
CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8000 FEET. PUNTA CANA...
LIGHT RAIN AND OVERCAST CLOUD LAYERS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO
PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START
WITH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE WIND FLOW WILL
SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF DAY ONE. NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW WILL SPAN HISPANIOLA FROM THE 12 HOUR TIME UNTIL THE END OF
DAY TWO. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START DAY ONE ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE IN A CLOCKWISE-
SENSE DURING DAY ONE...ENDING UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. A SEPARATE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA AT THE START OF DAY TWO. THAT ANTICYCLONIC CENTER
EVENTUALLY WILL BE NEAR 20N82W AT THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR TWO DAYS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 27N50W 25N60W
AND 24N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W...25N50W
22N63W 23N80W.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N23W. THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER IS BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
24N43W TO 13N52W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N22W...TO 33N37W...TO A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N50W...THROUGH 32N59W...28N66W...TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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