[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...WSW-ENE ORIENTED RIDGING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG 1033 MB BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 33N50W ALONG WITH A
1006 MB COLOMBIA LOW IS ENHANCING THE TRADEWINDS JUST NORTH OF
COLOMBIA.  WHILE THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR GALE THIS
MORNING...THEY ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH GALE AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH THE DIURNAL PEAK.  WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TRADEWINDS SHOULD
AGAIN DROP BELOW GALE TOMORROW MORNING...REACH GALE AGAIN
TOMORROW EVENING...AND DROP TO NEAR GALE ONE ADDITIONAL TIME
SUNDAY MORNING.  SEE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA
NEAR 07N13W THEN TO EAST ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR 04N17W WHERE THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND THEN CONTINUES TO
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS PRESENT.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO
24N91W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 19N95W.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO CAN BE SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS IS
INDUCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND IS SUPPORTING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  NORTH OF 26N EAST OF 88W SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BY THE INFRARED
IMAGERY...COASTAL RADARS...AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE ONLY FRESH TO MODERATE
BREEZE...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
FUNNELING BETWEEN THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF MEXICO AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS PRODUCING NW STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS...
WHICH WILL DIMINISH LATER TODAY.  THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY SHORTLY WHILE THE PORTION SOUTH OF ABOUT 25N SHOULD
DISSIPATE.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME ORIENTATED MORE
EAST-WEST AND PUSH BACK NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS FRONT SHOULD HELP PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS
EXTENSIVE...NEAR THE FRONT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  BY SUNDAY...THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE OVER GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

WSW-ENE ORIENTED RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG 1033 MB
BERMUDA HIGH NEAR 33N50W ALONG WITH A 1006 MB COLOMBIA LOW IS
ENHANCING THE TRADEWINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN.  THE WINDS JUST NORTH
OF COLOMBIA WILL PERIODICALLY REACH GALE CONDITIONS DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...AS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
ELSEWHERE EASTERLY TRADES OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE
CARIBBEAN.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS OR LACK OF CONVECTION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER REIGNS OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY
RELATIVELY DRY SUBSIDING AIR AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE UPWIND AND MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA COAST AND 75W.  THIS IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA.  NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA.  EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC DUE TO THE BERMUDA
AND AZORES HIGHS SETTING UP ALONG 33N ACROSS THE BASIN.  THE
EQUATORWARD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CAUSING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE BASIN.  THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN SOME MAINTAINING THE GENERAL STRENGTH OF
THE TRADEWINDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA
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