[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS SOON IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 10 TO 15
FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE AND WILL
PULSE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA
NEAR 07N12W THEN TO E ATLC WATERS NEAR 04N16W WHERE THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS AND THEN CONTINUES
ALONG 01N28W TO 02S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N TO 04N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N85W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W SW TO 26N94W TO 23N96W WHERE
IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER SW TO
23N90W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ADVECTING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EPAC TROPICAL WATERS THAT IS FUELING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW...E OF THE
FRONT N OF 25N. THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOW SCATTERED
TSTMS IN THE SAME REGION. SCAT DATA SHOW MAINLY LIGHT VARIABLE
WIND ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR SOME PORTION OF THE SE GULF
WHERE MODERATE SE FLOW IS PRESENT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WHILE IT LIFT BACK NW AS A WEAK WARM FRONT THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE NE BASIN THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SUPPORTS GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST NW OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...AS IS DISCUSSED IN DETAIL IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE IN THE
NW BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUPPORTING E TO SE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS...CONTINUING THROUGH SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW
MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE NE REGION TO INCLUDE
PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
ADVECTING LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TROPICAL
WATERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
A PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 24N W
OF 67W WITH THE GOES LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT SHOWING ISOLATED
TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS. MAINLY MODERATE
TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN W OF
50W...THE EXCEPTION IS N OF HISPANIOLA WHERE WINDS ARE FRESH TO
STRONG DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. MODERATE TO
FRESH NE TO E TRADES DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 50W. HIGH PRES AND
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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