[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THE PRES GRADIENT IN THIS REGION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY 1200
UTC TODAY AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA KEEPS MOVING E...THIS
RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW GALE-FORCE. GALE CONDITIONS
WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
DIMINISHES. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER
HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N12W TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N40W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR
01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 0N TO 05N BETWEEN
12W AND 30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE ITCZ W OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW
COVER THE BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 23N W OF 91W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
S WINDS ARE BEING INDUCED BY A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL U.S. AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW BASIN THU MORNING. MODERATE
TO FRESH RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF STRONG WIND MAINLY IN THE NW
BASIN. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP W OF THE
FRONT THU AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING MOST OF THU AND
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR
20N75W...CONTINUING TO 19N81W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF
IT...INCLUDING BELIZE AND HONDURAS...CUBA AND SOUTHERN HAITI.
LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW EITHER SIDE OF
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND TRADES OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE A GALE
WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 UTC TODAY. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NE AND SE BASIN
ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE CARRIED BY THE TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING LEAVING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS
EVENING.

HISPANIOLA...

EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SW
HAITI...FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN CUBA WHERE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SW OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS. IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINOUS OR CENTRAL REGION OF HISPANIOLA IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W TO
23N66W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES
SW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W
WHERE IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL FULLY STALL LATER TODAY AND WEAKEN BY LATE
TONIGHT. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THU. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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