[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
174 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED AS OF 1200
UTC WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE-FORCE. HOWEVER...GALE
CONDITIONS WILL PULSE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SIERRA LEONE AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N11W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W THEN TO
THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 0N TO 05N BETWEEN 22W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S RETURN FLOW
OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY
PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS OVER THE GULF E OF 92W...WHILE LOCALLY
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WERE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW GULF. AT
THE UPPER LEVELS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERED
THE BASIN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GULF N OF
23N. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IT WILL DRAG THE NEXT COLD FRONT
INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE GULF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THU
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT...REACHING NEAR GALE
FORCE OVER THE FAR W GULF BY THU AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT N OF 28N AND SPREAD E
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THU AND THU NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING WANING SUPPORT TO A FRONT N OF THE
AREA THAT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WEST-CENTRAL CUBA...AND THE ADJACENT FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA.
ADDITIONAL LOW TOPPED SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS NOTED OVER BELIZE...
HONDURAS...AND THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OTHERWISE
MAINLY FAIR SKIES PREVAILED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER
MOST OF THE BASIN...TRANSITIONING TO STRONG THE NEAR GALE FORCE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN TONIGHT. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SW
CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

THE 1200 UTC SOUNDING FROM SANTO DOMINGO INDICATED A STRONG
TRADE WIND INVERSION AT 800 MB WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AT THE LOW
LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS WERE AROUND 1.25 INCHES. THE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WERE REFLECTED IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWED GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE N OF THE ISLAND
LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SHEARING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLC IS PROVIDING WANING SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 27N54W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT CONTINUES SW THROUGH 25N60W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS AND E CUBA NEAR 21N76W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 33N66W AND A
1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 31N33W. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND BEGIN DISSIPATING
BY LATE THU. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THU. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW ATLANTIC BY LATE FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB
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