[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
THE PRES GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY 1200 UTC WED AS HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA MOVES E...THIS RESULTING IN WINDS DIMINISHING
BELOW GALE-FORCE. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PULSE AGAIN THU NIGHT AS
LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA DIMINISHES. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS BISSAU AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 05N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 30W THEN TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OBSERVED FROM 0N TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05S TO 02S BETWEEN 25W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB PRES CENTER NEAR 29N84W. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS AROUND THE HIGH PRES CENTER...N OF 25N E OF 88W AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST SCAT PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE
WIND FLOW COVER THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT N OF 26N W OF 96W
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S WINDS ARE BEING INDUCED BY A
STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRES OVER CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW
BASIN THU MORNING. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES OVER THE NE BASIN
WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING BUT MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING...WITH ISOLATED
AREAS OF STRONG WIND. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN
BEING INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU
MORNING. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING MOST OF THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA THAT TRANSITIONS
TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N74W...CONTINUING TO 18N82W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W.
SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF IT...INCLUDING
BELIZE AND HONDURAS...CUBA AND HAITI. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW
MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW EITHER SIDE OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND
TRADES OF THE SAME MAGNITUDE ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN...EXCEPT
IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN WHERE A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN
EFFECT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NE AND
SE BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...

EXCEPT FOR SOME CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
HAITI...FAIR WEATHER REIGN OVER THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR...AS SHOWN IN CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT REACHES THE
FAR NW REGION OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS
STARTING TO STALL WHILE IT WEAKENS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
SHOWERS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W SW TO
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR
20N74W WHERE IT STARTS TO STALL WHILE IT WEAKENS ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM W OF
THE FRONT N OF 23N WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF
IT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES W AND E OF THE FRONT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL LATER TODAY AND WEAKEN BY LATE
WED NIGHT. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THU. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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