[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-
77W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N10W TO 01N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR THROUGH 33W THEN TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 50NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
29N84W EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
BASIN S OF 26N AND E OF 87W. EXPECT FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 15N83W
TO 20N75W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E CUBA...THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...JAMAICA...AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS PREVAILING WHILE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TRADES
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. A PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER N COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WITH THE
TRADES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE
AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NORTHERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH.

HISPANIOLA...

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ON THE INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W.  WITH THIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT
MOVES E AND STALLS NEAR HAITI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N80W. ITS RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 67W. TO
THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N75W TO 32N57W. SCATTERED
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT WITH
STRONGEST ACTIVITY N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-64W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1029 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N33W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY
N OF 28N AND W OF 55W WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH
CONVECTION WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL WEAKEN AND STALL E OF
THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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