[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH
PRES N OF THE AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN/PANAMANIAM LOW WILL RESULT
IN MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 00Z-12Z TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 13-14 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
BELOW GALE FORCE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS
MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N10W TO 01N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 25W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 03S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 03N
TO 05N BETWEEN 04W AND 06W...AND FROM 02N TO 03.5N BETWEEN 08W
AND 10W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 25W AND 27W AND FROM 00N TO 02N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRES OF 1028 MB CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REGION. ANOTHER HIGH PRES CENTER OF 1026
MB IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. FRESH SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW GULF AS HIGH PRES
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF MOVES TOWARDS THE SE CONUS.
THIS FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
NOTED ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. CLEAR SKIES ARE JUST W OF FLORIDA. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU FOLLOWED
BY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. THE FRONT WILL
REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THU EVENING
THEN WEAKEN AND STALL FROM TAMPA BAY THROUGH 25N90W TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE FRI...THEN DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE BY SAT. ALOFT...A
ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURE FOR DETAILS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT THROUGH PROBABLY
EARLY SUN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER THE MOST RECENT
ASCAT PASS AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE
WINDS ARE AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND ARE ALSO ADVECTING SOME COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS AND HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT SE AND STALL
FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT W AND
WEAKEN WED. THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
VEER TO THE NE DIMINISHING TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE LATER
TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED OVER THE
ISLAND LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL
SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATER TODAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA. THIS COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC WITH BASE
REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N60W THE CONTINUES SW ACROSS
THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. N TO NE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SPREADING THIS CLOUDINESS INLAND
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SE FLORIDA. THIS MORNING...A WINDSAT
PASS HAS NICELY CAPTURED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT FORECAST DRIFT SE AND STALL FROM 31N52W TO 24N65W TO
WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WED WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG
30N-31N INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THU. A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB
HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N34W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES
ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PER
SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE
FLORIDA COAST BY FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR
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