[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING SW GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
OVER THE SW GULF SW OF LINE FROM 20N96W TO 19N94W WITH NW WINDS
OF 30 TO 40 KT. GALE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR SW
WATERS EARLY TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 7N16W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W 1N42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 48W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 13W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
NW GULF SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA BETWEEN TITUSVILLE AND SARASOTA THEN ALONG 25N86W 22N91W
TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 18N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND
EVERGLADES CITY ALONG 24N94W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
21N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
HAS BUILT IN OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY
A 1034 MB HIGH OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE
OF THE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF EARLY TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NW GULF ON MON AND
SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON TUE WHILE STRENGTHENING OVER
THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS
COAST LATE WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
NW COLOMBIA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATES ALL BUT THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF LINE FROM 23N82W TO 20N87W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH MON THEN INCREASE TO STRONG TO
NEAR GALE FORCE ON TUE AND WED. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO NEAR
GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TONIGHT AND REACH
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE MON THEN
DISSIPATE FROM HAITI TO E HONDURAS ON TUE.

HISPANIOLA...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON NIGHT WHEN
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL INCREASE
BRINGING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 32N78W
ALONG 30N79W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TITUSVILLE. A
SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW
NEAR 33N74W ALONG 31N74W 28N77W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND
32N59W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI ON MON NIGHT. BY LATE TUE THE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N52W TO 23N65W THEN STATIONARY TO
HAITI. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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