[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE SW GULF.
WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING NW OF THE FRONT SW OF A LINE
FROM 23N97W TO 19N95W. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS
AREA. THE GALE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N10W TO 04N14W TO 02N24W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 00N34W TO 00N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 05W AND 26W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 30W AND
47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST US SUPPORTS LOW PRES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF COAST
NEAR 29N83W TO 24N90W TO 18N93W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO 23N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 81W AND
94W. MAINLY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE
SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE S OF THE
TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND WILL EXIT THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO MON MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT TO THE NW OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BASIN...ALONG
WITH THE ONGOING GALE OVER THE SW GULF UNTIL 0600 UTC MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH
ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE
N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA
SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIA
COAST...AND S OF 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND WILL REACH FROM E CUBA
TO BELIZE MON NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA.
OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID WEST US SUPPORTS AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC JUST N OF OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ONE OF THESE LOWS JUST EAST OF THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N80W TO NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N76W TO 28N78W AND OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AND WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. TO THE EAST...BROAD RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 37N29W DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SUBTROPICAL
AND TROPICAL NORTHERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONVECTION WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES EAST OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
NEAR 30N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS BY MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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LATTO
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