[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 29N83W 18N93W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-
TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM 23N97W TO 19N95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 29N100W AT THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER...THROUGH 24N99W...
TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 19N96W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS IS THAT GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...
THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN CAP BLANC AND CAP TIMIRIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N17W AND 02N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...TO 01S32W AND 01S38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 34W AND 45W. DISORGANIZED
ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W
EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM IOWA TO TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W...CURVING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 20N99W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 24N86W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 21N97W...
AND SPREADING FROM NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 28N83W
21N97W LINE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 23N80W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...AND KIKT.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN
WAS BEING OBSERVED DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO IN PERRY. LIGHT
RAIN IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR IN SARASOTA AND PUNTA GORDA. LIGHT
RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED IN EARLIER OBSERVATIONS IN THE FORT
MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN NAPLES.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA... IT
CURVES TOWARD AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT
CURVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W...SIX HOURS AGO...HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
74W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE IS ALONG 26N61W 24N71W...TOWARD CUBA...AND HONDURAS/
NICARAGUA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
SHORES OF HISPANIOLA...ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE AND BETWEEN
THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SANTO
DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING...1400 FEET...MVFR. PUERTO PLATA...CAVOK.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO CHANGES IN
THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...AND
EVENTUALLY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL BE NEAR
20N60W ARE INFLUENTIAL FEATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT IN HISPANIOLA FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM 36 HOURS
UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ENDS NEAR 34N51W. A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 34N51W...TO 33N59W...BEYOND 34N64W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS...DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 30W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.60 IN
BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO
24N30W 14N41W AND 04N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N48W...TO 26N61W 24N71W...TOWARD CUBA...
AND HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...AND
FROM 20N NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net