[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200419
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N84W TO 18N95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTH WINDS
AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 96W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING BEHIND THE CURRENT GULF
OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS IS THAT
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE
READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/
FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...
THREAT OF NORTHERLY NEAR GALE IN CAP BLANC AND CAP TIMIRIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N16W AND 02N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 01S31W...TO THE
EQUATOR ALONG 40W...TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 35W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A. FROM IOWA TO TEXAS.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W...
TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO
20N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...TO 24N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE AT MANY
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR
THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT IS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 31N87W 27N87W 22N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 24N NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO 32N
BETWEEN 72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GUATEMALA WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30
NM RADIUS OF 16.5N 89.5W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KHHV...KVAF...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...
KGRY...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN BOOTHVILLE. VFR/
NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.
FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN PUNTA GORDA. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA... IT
CURVES TOWARD AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT
CURVES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN GUATEMALA WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 16.5N 89.5W.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
74W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE IS ALONG 26N66W 24N72W...AND TO 20N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 2400 FEET AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 6000 FEET FOR THE
OBSERVATION AT 19/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1800 FEET...MVFR.
SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO.
THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO CHANGES IN
THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE...AND
EVENTUALLY AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL BE NEAR
20N60W ARE INFLUENTIAL FEATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BE PRESENT IN HISPANIOLA FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM 36 HOURS
UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ENDS NEAR 33N53W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
33N53W TO 32N58W AND 32N62W. A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 32N62W...NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM
30W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.60 IN BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO
26N29W 16N42W AND 05N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 30N38W...TO A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N44W...TO 27N54W 26N66W
24N72W...AND TO 20N83W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...AND FROM
20N NORTHWARD ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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