[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
APALACHICOLA THROUGH 25N91W TO JUST S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND IS
PRESSING SOUTHWARD. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS
RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONT TO
25N AND W OF 96W. REPORTS FROM TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ INDICATED
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 30 KT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUN WITH WINDS REACHING 40 KT SUN
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO 14 FT BY LATE
SUN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 03N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 01N40W TO 01S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARPENING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUPPORTS
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO THE NE GULF COAST NEAR
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA THROUGH 25N91W TO JUST S OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
AS OF 2100 UTC. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB
SURFACE LOW NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA THROUGH TAMPA TO 24N89W
IN THE GULF. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH FROM THE FLORIDA COAST TO 88W. GRIDDED LIGHTNING AND
NATIONAL LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY
WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF 25N85W. THE COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN FRESH
TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS. THESE WINDS HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE N
OF THE FRONT TO 25N AND W OF 96W...REFER TO SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR GALE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT. SE WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT HAVE DECREASED TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE... EXCEPT STRONG
AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SHORTLY FOLLOWING. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. ONLY A FEW PATCHES
OF LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...HISPANIOLA AND THE CUBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA
SUPPORTS MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST...AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N BETWEEN
84W AND 86W PER SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND.
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA THROUGH TAMPA TO 24N89W IN THE GULF IS
MOVING E AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC N
OF 26N W OF 70W. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WAS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N76W TO JUST EAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA. FURTHER EAST...A 1022 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 29N47W AND IS PART OF A BROADER RIDGE AXIS THAT
EXTENDS FROM A STRONG HIGH OVER THE AZORES...THROUGH THE CENTRAL
SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO THE BAHAMAS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE
FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 32N41W TO
26N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL BE INCREASING N OF 25N W OF 75W AS DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFF NORTH CAROLINA PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB
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