[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE SE
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD S BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN
GALE FORCE WINDS NW OF THE FRONT S OF 26N BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N14W TO 03N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N30W TO 01N40W TO 01S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 10W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS LOW PRES OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
TO THE NW GULF COAST NEAR 30N91W TO 26N97W. A VIGOROUS PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR 30N85W TO 24N92W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
28N89W TO 24N96W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 27N81W TO 26N88W...INCLUDING W CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PRESENTLY...FRESH TO STRONG N TO NW WINDS ARE OCCURRING NW OF
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WINDS OVER THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT S OF 26N WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CURRENTLY...MAINLY FRESH SE WINDS
COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS BECOME
STRONG AND VARIABLE WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT TO THE SE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR VERA CRUZ MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF BY MONDAY
MORNING...WITH THE COLD FRONT SHORTLY FOLLOWING. THE GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH
SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE NW
OF THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY A FEW
PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS EVIDENT MAINLY OVER THE N CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORTS
MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT
LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIA COAST...AND S OF 19N
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. A COLD FRONT MOVING SE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW
ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. OTHERWISE...DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ISLAND.
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS MOVING E AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL US...SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF
77W...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A 1022 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N49W AND IS PART OF A BROADER RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG HIGH OVER THE AZORES...THROUGH THE
CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO THE BAHAMAS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 31N42W TO 26N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY N OF 25N W OF 75W AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net