[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...

A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 26.5N82W 22N90W 19N91W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 14 FEET TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 20N96W TO 19N95W. THE GALE-FORCE WIND
IS FORECAST TO STOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PLEASE READ THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...THROUGH A
A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N99W...THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER
DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 05N17W THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N17W TO
03N20W 01N28W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...TO 01S32W
03S37W AND 05S40W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 07N SOUTHWARD FROM 31W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 06N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S.A....THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE
NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 18N92W
JUST INLAND. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 160 NM TO
THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...FROM 19N IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO 31N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
EVENTUALLY INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOISTURE AT MANY LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 29N81W IN
FLORIDA...TO 25N90W TO 24N98W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE 29N81W 24N98W LINE. IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LINE 23N80W 18N87W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...
IS 0.01 IN BERMUDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

VFR/NO CEILINGS.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR IN
NAPLES. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED IN THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA...AND IN MARATHON KEY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. THE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA... IT CURVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT CURVES
TOWARD THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY BETWEEN 70W AND
80W...INCLUDING IN THE AREAS AROUND CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
HISPANIOLA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS...IN THE AREAS AROUND CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT 21/0000 UTC. FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AT 21/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WEST-TO-NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION ARE DIRECTLY RELATED TO SLIGHT
CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF A RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER BECOMES MORE AND MORE STRETCHED OUT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO
24N25W 15N37W AND 05N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-FLORIDA AND GULF OF
MEXICO COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 05N NORTHWARD FROM 60W
EASTWARD...AND FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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