[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...

THE 21-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO
19N93W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET FROM 22N TO 24N TO THE WEST OF 96W.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W TO 06N16W 04N18W 02N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N21W TO 01N30W AND 01N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 07W AND
08W...AND FROM 01S TO 02N BETWEEN 03W AND 05W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 04N14W 03N16W 02N19W...FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 22W AND
24W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STILL
IS IN THE DEVELOPING STAGES IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM THE MIDDLE GULF
COASTAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD...IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...IN FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND IN
PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS THROUGH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. A COLD FRONT
CUTS THROUGH TEXAS FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...AND KGUL.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR...KMDJ...AND
KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KHHV...KVAF...KHQI...KGRY...
AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR IN WESLACO...HARLINGEN...AND PORT ISABEL. THE RAIN
IN BROWNSVILLE ENDED A FEW HOURS AGO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER
ARE PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN AND
THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN VICTORIA. MVFR IN PORT LAVACA AND
PALACIOS...IN BAY CITY...AND IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LIGHT
RAIN IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. THUNDER IS CLOSE TO SUGARLAND.
MVFR IN TOMBALL AND CONROE AND JASPER. IFR IN HUNSTVILLE.
LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. RAIN AND
THUNDER IN PATTERSON AND GALLIANO. IFR IN PORT FOURCHON. HEAVY
RAIN IN BOOTHVILLE. RAIN AND THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED ALL
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR AT THE STENNIS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. RAIN AND THUNDER ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI...TO THE EAST OF STENNIS. ALABAMA...RAIN IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS. FLORIDA...RAIN IS BEING REPORTED FROM PERRY
WESTWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE MOMENT IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA. THE RAIN HAS STOPPED POSSIBLY ONLY TEMPORARILY. LIGHT RAIN
AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. RAIN WAS REPORTED IN KEY WEST
DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...
IT CURVES TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT CURVES
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
73W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
27N61W TO 25N74W NEAR THE BAHAMAS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW CLOUDS
AT 2200 FEET AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5000 FEET AT 19/0200 UTC.
FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA
CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
PUERTO PLATA...CLEAR SKY.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 26N47W TO
23N55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N50W 20N52W 18N54W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLEFROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 30W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO
24N39W 16N46W AND 05N51W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 25N37W TO 11N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N53W...TO 27N61W...AND TO 25N74W NEAR THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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