[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191110
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT MAR 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WINDS...

THE 15-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N86W TO
21N97W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA
HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE
COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 04N17W AND THE EQUATOR
ALONG 20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO
02S26W...THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO 01S41W AND 01S45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 02N
TO 05N BETWEEN 08W AND 10W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN
12W AND 14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 16W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS
ORGANIZING ITSELF MORE AND MORE IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE...ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 92W
WESTWARD...AND FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND 88W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT CUTS
THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MEXICO...
AND BEYOND THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS...NORTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LIFR CONDITIONS...KEMK...KGBK...KEHC...AND KGRY.

IFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KHQI...KVBS...AND KVQT.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KXIH...KGLS...KVAF...KGUL...KEIR...
AND KSPR.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...RAINSHOWERS...THUNDER...AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
VALLEY AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. MVFR IN VICTORIA...PORT
LAVACA...BAY CITY...RAIN IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...AND FROM THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA NORTHWARD TO HUNTSVILLE AND JASPER...
AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR/IFR IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAINS. MVFR IN BOOTHVILLE AND
SLIDELL. THE RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE MOMENT AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. IT MAY RESUME LATER. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR
CONDITIONS FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. RAIN IN THE PANAMA CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA. RAIN AND THUNDER IN APALACHICOLA. RAIN IN
TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. LIGHT RAIN IN PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS
METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STARTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA...
IT CURVES TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND THEN IT CURVES
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
74W...AND FROM 18N NORTHWARD FROM 81W EASTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS CROSSING
HISPANIOLA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
26N63W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO/LA ROMANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN SIDE
OF A RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
WILL BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N41W TO 26N48W AND 24N56W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 30W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO
23N38W 15N42W AND 06N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N30W...THROUGH 32N33W...26N38W AND 22N50W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N54W...TO 26N63W...AND TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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