[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182326
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING SW GULF OF MEXICO...A GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO
EFFECT LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN FROM 22N-24N W OF 96W THEN
SHIFTING SE ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. THESE
WINDS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE W OF THE
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N14W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N
BETWEEN 6W-9W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA AND IN THE NE GULF N OF 25N E
OF 90W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 70W
GIVING THE GULF BASIN SW FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. AREAS OF FOG OR
HAZE ARE STILL BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF
90W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT REACHING
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY SAT AND FROM
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SAT EVENING
BEFORE MOVING E THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUN EVENING.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE W OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE NW GULF ON MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 70W INTO THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. ONE AREA IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N E OF 63W
TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE SECOND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 20N BETWEEN 77W-85W TO INLAND OVER CUBA. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO GULF OF
HONDURAS LATE MON.

HISPANIOLA...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SOME
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
REGIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON. MON
EVENING WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE AND THUS AN INCREASE
CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
OVER W ATLC ALONG 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED
ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM 31N77W TO 28N80W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 70W TO OVER NE FLORIDA. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE N/CENTRAL
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W
ALONG 28N46W TO 25N50W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 23N55W TO 22N61W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N54W TO 20N51W WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH S
OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN
EVENING AND FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net