[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 172332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 6N16W TO 2N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 0.5N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SW AFRICA
FROM LIBERIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. SMALL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4.5N13W
ALONG 3N22W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE N GULF COAST
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TO GEORGIA AND IN THE NE GULF N OF 28N E
OF 88W TO INLAND OVER N FLORIDA. A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF AND W ATLC ALONG
81W GIVING THE GULF BASIN MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW
IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF GENERATING
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W. REPORTS OF FOG OR HAZE ARE OVER THE
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE
ACROSS THE N GULF TONIGHT AND FRI STALLING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE FRONT NEAR 24N95W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT ON
SAT THROUGH SUN DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO A POSITION FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SAT NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON SUN EVENING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS
A RIDGE AXIS FROM COLOMBIA TO W CUBA THEN N ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE W ATLC ALONG 81W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS
EVENING. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. ONE AREA IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-16N E OF 64W
TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH THE SECOND ARE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM OVER S HAITI NEAR 19N72W
ACROSS JAMAICA TO 17N85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE NW COAST OF VENEZUELA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN 30
NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG
TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SUN EVENING.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS S HAITI THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. THIS AREA WILL BE PLAGUED WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRI WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE
ISLAND INTO THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ALONG 81W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N70W.
AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W ALONG 27N52W TO 23N60W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 22N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO SE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N50W TO 22N54W. A
SECOND SHORT SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
EXTENDING FROM 9N50W TO 16N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-
20N BETWEEN 47W-52W. SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COLD FRONT
EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N20W TO 27N26W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 25N31W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
TO 22N42W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 31N37W AND A
1019 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 22N28W. A SERIES OF WEAK
TROUGHS WILL PASS E ACROSS THE W ATLC N OF 27N THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ON SAT
NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SUN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON SUN
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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