[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 02N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 00N30W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 03S39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS FROM 04S-00N BETWEEN 27W-
38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF AND W ATLANTIC ALONG 81W GIVING THE GULF
A SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS CLOUDS. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS INLAND ALONG THE N
GULF COAST STATES GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILING N OF 29N AND E OF 90W. LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 26N AND W
OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN.
EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE AREA AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF
STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS S ACROSS THE BASIN.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-74W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS PREVAIL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS
GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BASIN AFFECTING THE GREATER ANTILLES. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E. WITH
THIS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE BASIN AND
HENCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC ALONG 81W. AT
LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N66W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
22N63W TO 27N51W TO 32N49W. ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG
THE FRONT. S OF THIS FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
18N52W TO 20N49W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 34N34W. THERE IS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT E OF THIS
FEATURE EXTENDING 25N27W TO 32N17W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N
OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THIS
AREA...A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING. THE FRONT OVER THE E
ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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