[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN LIBERIA AFRICA AND
THEN INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 06N11W TO 03N19W WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N32W TO THE NORTHERN COAST
OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
01N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W AND FROM 06S TO 04N W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE RIDGING COVERING MOST OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS AND THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO E OF 86W. THE REMAINDER WESTERN BASIN
IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES THAT EXTENDS
FROM TEXAS AND MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM EPAC TROPICAL WATERS INTO
THE BASIN...WITH CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWING
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONCENTRATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
OVER THE FAR NE BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAT EXTEND WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE
COAST...AS INDICATED BY THE LIGHTING DENSITY PRODUCT. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW BASIN IN THE VICINITY OF A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N93W TO VERA CRUZ MEXICO. THE
GOES-13 IFR PRODUCT DEPICT HIGH PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG
WITHIN 120 NM OFF THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS
BEING CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. GOES-13 IFR PRODUCT
SHOWS MEDIUM PROBABILITIES OF FOG ELSEWHERE S OF 27N W OF 92W
AND WITHIN 160 NM OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 25N.
VESSELS AND BOATS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
REGIONS AS VISIBILITY CAN BE LESS THAN 3 MILES. OTHERWISE...THE
LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW VARIABLE GENTLE WIND ACROSS MOST OF THE
BASIN...EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL BASIN S OF 26N WHERE MODERATE SE
WIND DOMINATES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS FRIDAY S OF A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE CONUS.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SAT AS A PORTION OF THE FRONT TRANSITIONS
INTO A COLD FRONT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE SW NORTH AND CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW PRES ANCHORED BY A 1008
MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA COVERS MUCH OF THE SW AND S-
CENTRAL BASIN. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO REGIONS
SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA AND ALONG THE
COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE WEEKEND. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

RIDGING ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION IS SW HAITI AND
WATERS OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS THIS SHALLOW
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC WATERS ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N52W TO 23N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 30N50W TO 23N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHIN 100 NM AHEAD OF ITS AXIS. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N21W SW TO 26N27W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N34W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. TWO
WEAK CENTERS OF HIGH PRES ARE NW AND SE OF THE STATIONARY
PORTION OF THE FRONT. THE 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER SE OF THE
FRONT NEAR 23N29W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net