[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N14W TO 03N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03N32W TO 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 05N-01S BETWEEN 30W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
CARIBBEAN OVER THE E GULF AND W ATLANTIC GIVING THE GULF BASIN
SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS
CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF
25N AND W OF 90W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING FOG
ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. TO THE E...A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 27N83W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO
MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE E GULF TO REMAIN
IN PLACE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NE GULF BY LATE
THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND
EXTENDS N ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLANTIC. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE BASIN
SUPPORTING BENIGN WEATHER. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-77W
WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE ISLAND
INDUCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. A
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 70W
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N73W. TO THE E...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO 32N55W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 21N58W TO 29N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG A E OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 48W-57W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 23N37W TO 32N22W. SURFACE RIDGES ARE
BUILDING BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH A 1020 MB HIGH
LOCATED NEAR 30N39W AND ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 23N28W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN EXCEPT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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