[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 07N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES SW AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR AT 23W. ITCZ CONTINUES
THROUGH 02SS32W TO 03S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 01S-04S BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GULF ALONG 25N. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE AXIS ALONG 87W IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR AND DEEP LAYERED SUBSIDENCE WHICH
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH REPORTS OF FOG ARE STILL NOTED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO ON THE VICINITY OF
VERACRUZ...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND
TEXAS. EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
BASIN...TRANSITIONING TO MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW WINDS OVER
THE NW GULF. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE NW GULF BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS
SW OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN
WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN
GENERALLY SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ONLY
SHALLOW MOISTURE NOTED. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY
SHOWS PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMDEDDED
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENERALLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN...WITH LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS OF 20-25 KT NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PERSISTENT ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM SANTO DOMINGO SHOWED MOISTURE ONLY TO 850
MB WITH A STRONG DRY CAPPING INVERSION ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
ADDITIONALLY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE JUST UNDER 1.00 INCH.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IN THE AREA.  MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SAME SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N64W...A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N76W
AND A THIRD HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NE OF THE AREA NEAR 33N10W. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE FRONT. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE NW OF THE FRONT WAS GENERATING A VAST
AREA OF OPEN CELLULAR CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS GENERALLY
N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CAPTURED STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE SW WINDS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT WINDS
WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE ATLANTIC...INCLUDING THE TRADE
WIND BELT WHERE WINDS WERE BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

COBB
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