[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 6N11W TO 3N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 1N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 11W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH HAZE OR FOG BEING REPORTED ARE ACROSS THE
N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
24N79W ACROSS S FLORIDA TO THE RIO GRANDE. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED THEN SHIFT E AHEAD OF A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE N GULF EARLY WED THEN WILL DISSIPATE WED
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF THU NIGHT REACHING
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH
AMERICA IS PRODUCING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF LINE
FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES DOMINICA ALONG 16N68W TO 18N75W TO OVER
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THE FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA
INCREASING TO NEAR GALE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI.
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WITH PATCHES OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU SHIFTING TO ONLY OVER
HAITI THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N63W TO 25N61W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH NEAR 29N56W AND A SECOND 1019 MB HIGH IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N79W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W
ACROSS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL INTO THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE REGION NEAR 32N32W ALONG 27N38W TO 29N43W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES TO 23N50W. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 22N28W.
THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS PASSING E...ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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