[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 03S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 04N-05S BETWEEN 17W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN AT THIS TIME.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH REPORTS OF HAZE AND FOG ARE OVER THE W
AND NW GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM MEXICO TO TEXAS.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE HAZE AND FOG OVER THE W-NW GULF WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF BY LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC ALSO EXTENDS
S REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
ALSO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. SHALLOW MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES INDUCING
SHALLOW BUT PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT A SIMILAR
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PERSISTENT ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N67W AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N25W.
TO THE N OF THESE FEATURES...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N65W TO 28N57W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM
THAT POINT TO 28N46W TO 32N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED
ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A LIGHT TO
GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WHERE MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING S WHILE WEAKENING. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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