[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 04N16W TO 02N26W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N26W THROUGH
01N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-
24W...FROM 03N-04N BETWEEN 24W-27W...AND ALSO FROM 01N-03N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF NEAR APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH SPREADING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH MAINLY GENTLE
TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW...EXCEPT OCCASIONALLY TO FRESH NEAR THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

HIGH PRES RIDGING IS JUST N-NE OF THE BASIN WITH 1008 MB LOW
PRES NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THE PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO
STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG E-SE
FLOW IS PRESENT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT
IS LOCALLY TIGHTER AS WELL. OTHERWISE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
NW COLOMBIA.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS FOUND OVER WINDWARD LOCATIONS OF HISPANIOLA IN
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE ISLAND
OTHERWISE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MON AS
TRADE WIND FLOW PERSISTS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 32N29W TO 25N44W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES W-NW THROUGH 26N56W TO 31N66W
WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN
30-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE 1022 MB HIGH PRES
LOCATED NEAR 26N65W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E-SE INTO THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TUE WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW
PORTION OFF OF THE SE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST MON NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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