[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
06N10W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 04N17W TO 02N25W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N25W AND
CONTINUES TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S52W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 04N E OF 40W AND
FROM 0N TO 05N W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE SW N
ATLC EXTENDS W-SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF TO
85W. TO THE WEST...THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER FRONT ARE ANALYZED
AS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N83W TO 25N88W TO
20N92W. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AT
THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N
OF 26N E OF 87W. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SE
FLOW E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN. LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS SE TO NW GULF WATERS N OF 24N. OTHERWISE...FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WHILE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN...STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN BEING INFLUENCED BY RIDGING ALOFT.
SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NE BASIN SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA. BROAD HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC EXTENDS S
TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...THUS INCREASING THE GRADIENT OVER
THE NW AND SW BASIN WHERE SCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES.
MODERATE TRADES DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES IN
THE SW N ATLC WILL REMAIN NEARLY-STATIONARY...THUS MAINTAINING
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE
NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ISLAND BEING ENHANCED BY SHALLOW MOISTURE. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE BASIN NEAR 30N32W SW TO 25N44W TO 25N56W
WHERE IT STALLS THROUGH 30N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS. THE REMAINDER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN BASIN ARE BEING DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRES
ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH W OF THE FRONT AND A 1021 MB HIGH TO
THE E OF IT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY
MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL BASIN EARLY
TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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