[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 01N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N22W AND CONTINUES TO 01N38W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-01S BETWEEN 13W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N82W TO 27N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE  NE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 80W-85W. 10 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DISSIPATE. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEREAFTER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N74W. 20-25 KT
WINDS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
PERSIST OVER INLAND GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO INCLUDE
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE E.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N68W WITH
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM THE N. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N27W TO 25N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N50W TO
27N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N23W TO 24N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 75W-80W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-60W
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO
MOVE E AND DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N43W TO 28N50W TO 30N62W
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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