[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. A GALE IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR TONIGHT...AND DECREASE BELOW
GALE FORCE SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...
BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE
WEBSITE WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N-06N BETWEEN 11W-
20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 02N-04S
BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND NEAR SAN ANTONIO TEXAS AT 29N98W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR WACO TEXAS AT
32N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 29N92W 25N91W 18N95W. A SQUALL
LINE IS E OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM
30N89W TO 24N91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
FRONT AND SQUALL LINE N OF 18N BETWEEN 87W-95W TO INCLUDE E
LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF HAS FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO DRIFT E AND DISSIPATE OVER THE E GULF WITH
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 19N59W TO
13N59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A
FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20-30 KT
WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 80W TO INCLUDE W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N58W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE ENE.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 31N32W TO 21N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN
28W-32W. A GALE IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 32N30W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN
24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N27W TO 22N34W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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