[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT MAR 12 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. A GALE IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N13W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 00N-03N BETWEEN 16W-
20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 04N-04S
BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 MB LOW IS INLAND NEAR SAN ANTONIO TEXAS AT 29N98W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NE TO A TRIPLE POINT OVER N LOUISIANA AT
33N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALONG 29N90W 24N90W 18N94W. A SQUALL LINE IS E OF
THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N88W TO 23N89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT AND SQUALL LINE
N OF 20N BETWEEN 86W-93W TO INCLUDE E LOUISIANA. ELSEWHERE
FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR
30N98W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24
HOURS TO DRIFT E AND DISSIPATE OVER THE E GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 18N61W TO 12N61W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 78W TO
INCLUDE W CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO
INCLUDE COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N56W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE ENE.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 31N31W TO 27N31W TO 21N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N
BETWEEN 27W-31W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N29W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24 HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N26W TO
22N34W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net