[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112332
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-77W. DUE TO THIS...A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. EXPECT FOR THESE CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH
SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR TODAY...AND DECREASE BELOW GALE
FORCE BY SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...
BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE
WEBSITE WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 01N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01S30W TO 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW TEXAS NEAR 29N99W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THIS LOW TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
31N95W. A COLD FRONT THEN EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT INTO
THE W GULF FROM 30N94W TO 25N93W TO 20N97W. TO THE E...A SQUALL
LINE EXTENDS 30N88W TO 24N91W. WITH THIS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 24N BETWEEN
87W-92W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE A MODERATE TO
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BY LATE
SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. THE ONLY ACTIVITY OBSERVED IS INDUCED BY
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE GALE WINDS TO PULSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE ADVECTING OVER THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N68W
WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 29N AND W OF 40W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THIS AREA. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N33W TO 23N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 43N14W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THIS AREA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA OVER THE
METEO-FRANCE AGADIR SECTION. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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