[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI MAR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A DEVELOPING GALE NORTH OF COLOMBIA
FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WILL BEGIN AT 0000 UTC...
WITH SEAS REACHING 8 TO 11 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE BY 1200 UTC SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS
WILL OCCUR FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 79W SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF W AFRICA. METEO-FRANCE IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO
CONTINUE FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR TODAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE BY SATURDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-
FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 01N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS
AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO 02S41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS LOCATED SOUTH OF 05N AND BETWEEN 29W AND 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 MB LOW IS INLAND BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND SAN ANTONIO
TEXAS AT 28N98W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E TO A TRIPLE POINT
NEAR LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AT 30N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE TRIPLE POINT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BASIN FROM 29N90W TO
19N93W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 29N90W AND 24N91W. WINDS EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ARE FRESH TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 150 NM WEST OF THE
FRONT WINDS ARE MODERATE AND VARIABLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WESTERN BASIN AND ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WINDS ARE FRESH FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL
BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN LIKELY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH PATCHES OF SHOWERS IN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE TRADE WINDS MAINLY N OF 14N E OF 83W.
MOSTLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE BASIN EXCEPT
FRESH TO STRONG OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND
77W...AND A SMALL AREA OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THE AREA N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST WILL
EXPERIENCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE STARTING THIS EVENING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHER
THAN THE PULSING GALE N OF COLOMBIA...LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN TRADE WIND FLOW ARE ADVECTING OVER THE
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TODAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W
WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS W TO NORTHERN FL WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N55W TO 09N60W AND IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N34W TO 21N41W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS OCCURRING
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA OVER THE METEO-FRANCE AGADIR
SECTION. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO/HEFFERAN
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