[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. A GALE IS FROM 10.5N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS. METEO-FRANCE
IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND
TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...
PERSISTENCE OF NORTH NEAR GALE OR GALE OVER AGADIR AND TARFAYA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 01N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 01N20W AND CONTINUES TO 01S30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 01N-
05N BETWEEN 03W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 04N-03S BETWEEN 20W-36W...AND FROM 02N-04S BETWEEN 42W-
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1011 MB LOW IS INLAND NEAR SAN ANTONIO TEXAS AT 29N98W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS E TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AT
30N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG 27N92W 18N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT N OF 22N BETWEEN 89W-95W TO
INCLUDE LOUISIANA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 22N90W TO 17N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF HAS
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E
OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT
THE LOW TO MOVE TO N TO CENTRAL TEXAS IN 24 HOURS NEAR 31N98W
WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SHEAR
LINE. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20-
30 KT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF
83W TO INCLUDE BELIZE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ADVECTING OVER HISPANIOLA FROM THE ENE.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL SUPPRESS ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N66W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 31N35W TO 21N40W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 11N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 25W-
35W. A GALE IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
31N37W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24
HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N30W TO 21N40W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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