[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110538
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI MAR 11 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF N COLOMBIA. A GALE IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W
WITH SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS. METEO-FRANCE
IS FORECASTING GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND
TARFAYA. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONSISTS OF...
PERSISTENCE OF NORTH NEAR GALE OR GALE OVER AGADIR AND TARFAYA.
PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE... BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 03N21W AND CONTINUES TO 00N30W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS 04N-03S BETWEEN 22W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS AT 30N94W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ALONG
27N92W 20N93W 17N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE
FRONT FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 91W-94W TO INCLUDE
E LOUISIANA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N89W TO 18N90W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 87W-92W. ELSEWHERE
FLORIDA AND THE FAR E GULF HAS FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
25N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF. EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE TO N OF
HOUSTON IN 24 HOURS NEAR 32N97W WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...
A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM TRINIDAD TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA
NEAR 11N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SHEAR
LINE. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINING 20-
30 KT WINDS OVER THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN OUTSIDE OF THE GALE
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF
16N W OF 83W TO INCLUDE BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
ISLAND AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STRONG 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W
WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
FROM 31N37W TO 22N40W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 11N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 26W-
36W. A GALE IS E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
31N37W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN 24
HOURS TO EXTEND FROM 31N32W TO 20N40W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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