[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU MAR 10 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA
SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11N-
13N BETWEEN 74W-77W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE NE WINDS OVER THE FAR E
ATLANTIC FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA. METEO-FRANCE HAS A
GALE WARNING OVER THESE AREAS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AGADIR. PLEASE REFER
TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...LISTED UNDER THE
FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W
TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 03N20W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ MAINLY W OF 10W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER MEXICO CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N95W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 24N93W TO 18N95W. TO THE E OF
THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N92W TO 26N93W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAIL ALONG AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LOW/FRONT/TROUGH AFFECTING THE W GULF W OF
90W. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC
EXTENDS W ACROSS THE E GULF E OF 90W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE W PORTION OF THE
BASIN W OF THE FRONT WHILE A FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. LATEST GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE
LOW MOVING N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAKING THE FRONT STATIONARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION BETWEEN 85W-95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
EXTENDING S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE ONLY AREA WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE THE SE...WHERE THE REMNANTS
OF A COLD FRONT TRANSITIONED INTO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
11N68W TO 12N62W. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THE SHEAR
LINE WHILE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE S OF THE
LINE. TO THE W...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA SUPPORTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN W OF 70W...AND GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE GALE WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR
LINE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE ISLAND TONIGHT. EXPECT SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO BEGIN ONCE
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
WITH A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N71W. TO THE E...A
WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N39W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 23N39W TO 20N47W WHERE THE FRONT
TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING TO 12N62W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. ANOTHER SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N18W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS N OF 30N AND E OF 20W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE
FOR DETAILS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W AND FAR E ATLANTIC. THE LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
BASIN WHILE MOVING EASTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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