[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091118
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED MAR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR IN METAREA II.
NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE
THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE FOLLOWING
LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND LARGE...METAREA
II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/ BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES OF A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE GALE WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 14
FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH MAX SEAS TO 13 FT.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THU EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND MEXICO TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR
05N09W TO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC ALONG 04N20W TO 02N24W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N25W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01S38W TO 02S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 02S-06N BETWEEN 14W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E BASIN ANCHORED BY A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW N ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
29N72W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER WESTERN
GULF WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
TEXAS SW ACROSS MEXICO TO EPAC WATERS WHERE IT STARTS TO
DISSIPATE. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
BASIN IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-
FORCE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. SEAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF
14 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR
MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OFF THE NE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 25N W OF 96W WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVER THE BASIN W OF 91W. DENSE FOG IS ALSO BEING REPORTED OVER
THE NW BASIN N OF 26N COINCIDING WITH MODERATE FOG PROBABILITIES
IN THE GOES IFR PRODUCT. VESSELS AND SHIPS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES IN THIS REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SCAT DATA INDICATE A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 16N61W SW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR
13N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE. A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES
LOCATED OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES CONTINUE TO BLOW IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA...AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW-W TO S OF HISPANIOLA TO
COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE TODAY WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY
WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT
AND THU NIGHT AS IS INDICATED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS SURFACE AND MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDE STABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1027 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 29N72W WITH BROAD
RIDGING DOMINATING THE SW N ATLC. A COLD FRONT ENTER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS FROM 30N43W TO 17N56W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS
TO A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
N OF 21N WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT. STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
S TO SW WINDS ARE N OF 25N TO 38W WITH A MAX OF SEAS OF 11 FT.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 65W WITH
MAX SEAS OF 10 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT AS IT
CONTINUES TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE HIGH WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN WILL DRIFT E
THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
FRI MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER BASIN E OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net