[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090606
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED MAR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA OF AGADIR IN METAREA II.
NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE
FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES... GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/
BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...THE CENTER OF HIGH PRES OF A BROAD
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW N ATLC WATERS WILL INTENSIFY BY
WED NIGHT...THUS ACTING TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT
WATERS. THE GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 15 FT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THU EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO
GALE FORCE WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 10N14W
INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 07N16W TO 02N20W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 02N21W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 01N33W TO 01S38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 01S-05N BETWEEN 13W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A NEARLY
STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW N ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR
30N74W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHES THE
WESTERN BASIN. THE LATEST SCAT PASS SHOWS SE TO S WINDS 25 TO 30
KT...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
WESTERN GULF WATERS N OF 21N. FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW
DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED EVENING WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU MORNING.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO A MAX OF 15 FT BY THU MORNING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.
OTHERWISE...DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE NW BASIN N OF 26N
COINCIDING WITH MODERATE FOG PROBABILITIES IN THE GOES IFR
PRODUCT. VESSELS AND SHIPS SHOULD EXERSICE CAUTION AS VISIBILITY
MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N61W TO
14N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES
LOCATED W-NW OF THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASIN FROM
THE SW N ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES ARE ALREADY
BLOWING IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE WATERS
BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA...AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW-W TO S
OF HISPANIOLA TO COLOBIA COASTAL WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TODAY WED AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT AS IS INDICATED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

HISPANIOLA...

STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS SURFACE AND MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING PROVIDE STABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1027 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 30N74W WITH BROAD
RIDGING DOMINATING THE SW N ATLC AND A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
BASIN. A COLD FRONT ENTER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC WATERS FROM
30N45W TO 17N58W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 21N WITHIN 300 NM E
OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL AROUND
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT
RIDGING WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW
PORTIONS CLOSEST TO THE HIGH LOCATION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND
WASH OUT AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24-42
HOURS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN
WILL DRIFT E THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
BASIN E OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR
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