[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082310
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN
METAREA II. NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...
GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/
BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE DETAILS.

NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WED EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO
GALE FORCE WED EVENING THROUGH WED NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE THU MORNING...DIMINISHING BY THU
AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN GALE...

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SW N
ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA WILL INTENSIFY SUPPORTING PULSING GALE FORCE WINDS FROM
11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-76W BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...THEN AGAIN THE FOLLOWING NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-
14 FT BY THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST
PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
10.5N14.5W INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC THROUGH 06N17W TO
02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N21W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 02N-18W...AND WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE SW N ATLANTIC NEAR
31N76W. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS APPROACHING
THE WESTERN GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG RETURN FLOW ALREADY
PREVAILING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY LOW PRESSURE AND WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
GULF WED EVENING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10-15 FT BY
LATE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR GUADELOUPE
TO 14N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES
IS LOCATED W-NW OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SW N ATLANTIC. FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES ARE ALREADY BLOWING
IN THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA
AND JAMAICA...AND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE SW-W TO S OF HISPANIOLA.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU AFTERNOON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-
12 FT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN BY THEN. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THEY WILL PULSE
TO GALE FORCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT
AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF
COASTAL LOCATIONS UNDER PREVAILING NE/ONSHORE FLOW...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HIGH PRESSURE AT 1028 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 31N76W WITH BROAD
RIDGING DOMINATING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 32N46W TO 20N55W TO NEAR GUADELOUPE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE N OF 21N WITHIN 240-360 NM E OF THE
FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG ANTICYCLONIC WINDS PREVAIL AROUND THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND ATTENDANT RIDGING
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS
CLOSEST TO THE HIGH LOCATION. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WASH OUT
AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU...THEN WILL DRIFT
E-SE THROUGH THU NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SW PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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