[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082018 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
METEO-FRANCE FOR THE AREAS OF AGADIR AND TARFAYA IN METAREA II.
NORTHERLY GALE TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER THE
FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/
PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

W ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO
17N61W. GALE FORCE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 29N BEHIND THE FRONT
BETWEEN 54W-58W AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. EXPECT
FOR THESE  CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

NW GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE BEGINNING THIS
EVENING FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 92W-95W. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY WEDNESDAY N OF 23N W OF 91W IN
THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN GALE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA WILL INTENSIFY SUPPORTING GALE
FORCE WINDS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-76W BY EARLY THURSDAY.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS SW AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N23W TO
02S42W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY E OF 14W WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE REMAINDER OF BOTH BOUNDARIES.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
31N76W. AS A SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BASIN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER
TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTING A FRESH TO STRONG
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS S
REACHING THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF 16N. TO THE
E...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 14N70W TO 17N62W WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A FRESH TO
STRONG NE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT SE OF THE FRONT E
OF 68W WHERE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. THIS FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES
ENHANCING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION...AS NOTED IN
THE LATEST DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN...PUERTO RICO.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR GALE FORCE WINDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED FROM THE W ATLANTIC. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 31N76W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1028 MB. TO THE E...A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 17N62W. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 29.
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT
N OF 23N. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N25W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA
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